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Market dynamics with firm-specific fixed and variable costs In this easy evolutionary model you'll find a market with a large number of firms, each characterised by a different cost structure, and you'll be able to study the evolution of profits over time, according to changes in demand and endogenous technology progress. A key statement will relate the way demand interacts with the kind of technological innovation approved by top management. Boom and bust behavior: on the persistence
of strategic decision biases Boom and bust are common among firms in a large range of different industries. Such dynamics occur in both traditional cyclical industries as well as industries with pronounced product and/or category lifecycles. The common managerial behavior underpinning boom and bust dynamics is aggressive capacity expansion in the boom period when demand typically outstrips supply. Aggressive capacity expansion strategies in the boom phase ultimately result in excess capacity turning the boom into bust. A combination of boundedly rational decision-making and capacity adjustment delays gives rise to boom and bust dynamics. The key statment of the paper is that firms rarely learn from boom and bust experiences, showing examples and a full-fledged explanation. Experiment yourself in a business game: do you learn from previous booms and bursts? "History Friendly" models of industrial evolution "History-friendly" models are a new approach to the construction of evolutionary models based on the formalization of the essence of theories about mechanisms and factors affecting the evolution of specific industries suggested by empirical research. They reflect the commitment to the arguments that realism should be considered as an important merit of theoretical models and that the design of formal economic models ought to proceed well informed by the empirical literature on the subject matter they purport to address. |
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| Productivity
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| Innovation
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Repurchase
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Key data |
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Industrial
structures: SMEs presence in 119 countries
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Consumers' microdata: incomes, preferences, purchase timing
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Industry-level output, employment, costs, investment, capital stocks over 38 years [4 MB]
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Simplified aggregate balance sheets: a time series
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Software |
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Dynamic competition with bi-directional product differentiation, bounded rational consumers, innovation, advertising, and finance Useful
for managers, researchers and students, this business game is a
powerful tool for understanding product life cycles, consumers'
attitudes, innovation management strategies, advertising
and competitive intelligent tactics. Essay and software automatic download [2400 KB] You are a monopolist
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Costs Software [2050 KB]
Isoquants
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Papers |
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Technological paradigm: the new approach to industrial dynamics The production function of students' grade
A critical introduction to the neoclassical concept of the "production function". To help students understanding the concept and its limitations, the author proposes to take into consideration a particular production process that should be well known to them: the production of grades in an exams after an education course. The persistence of innovation The competitive advantage of firms depends crucially on the firm’s ability to innovate over a long period of time. This essay provides a review of literature on the subject and many new insights. Essay series:
Global value chain: governance and typologies How Do We Define Value Chains and Production Networks
Value Chains: An Economist's Perspective The reference site for Global Value Chains
Interacting heterogeneous agents in finance Behavioural finance overview (January 2006). Essay: Survival
strategies: innovate or die To devise new modified versions earlier than expected during the product life cycle can costs you cannibalising your own product but leaves no room to competitors, thus resulting in long-term business success. Book: Industrial Growth and Competition - The Role of Technology in Firm Success, Industry Evolution, and Regional and National Growth Prof. Kenneth L. Simons explains in 150 pages all what you need to know about the evolution of new industries, the turnover of corporate leadership, the shakeouts and the industry dynamics linked to concentration, innovation sources, product differentiation. Firm size growth, regional agglomerations of firms, the city dynamics are mapped together with industry evolutionary patterns and evidence about the false myth of the U-Shaped long-run firm cost curve.
Agent-based modelling of house market
and price evolution Deterministic and fuzzy rules for vendor/buyer agents and other human agents, such as marketing agents and financial organisations provide an extremely interesting dynamics of this complex key market. Empirical data are feed into the model and used to test it. This excellent papers easily introduce the reader into the modelling procedures (e.g. the determination of market sentiment) and opens new ways of great interest.
Innovation science: the point of view of Industrial Engineering An original view on innovation across several disciplines. A large number of relevant papers by Prof. Kusiak The
Data-Inspired Innovation Model by Andrew Kusiak and
Chun-Yu Tang Estimation of a dynamic discrete choice model of irreversible investment A dataset of Spanish manufacturing firms provides an important empirical evidence that business investment - at micro level - is infrequent and lumpy.There are periods in which firms decide not to invest and periods of large investment episodes. Rocío Sánchez-Mangas develops and tests consider a dynamic discrete choice model of irreversible investment with a general specification of adjustment including convex and nonconvex components. Essay [200 KB] Macroeconomic consequences of lumpy investments can be grasped in this other paper by Dosi, Fagiolo and Roventini.
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Innovation and market structure in the dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry and biotechnology: towards a history friendly model Pharmaceuticals are traditionally a highly R&D intensive sector, which has undergone a series of radical technological and institutional “shocks”. However, the core of leading innovative firms and countries has remained quite small and stable for a very long period of time, but the degree of concentration has been consistently low, whatever the level of aggregation is considered. These patterns of industrial dynamics are intimately
linked to two main factors: first, the nature of the processes of
drug discovery, i.e. to the properties of the space of technological
opportunities and of the search procedures through which firms explore
it. Second, the fragmented nature of the relevant markets. This paper by Prof. Luigi Orsenigo and Prof. Franco Malerba is relevant to the understanding of this important industry as well as in terms of methodology appliable to many other sectors and evolutionary models.
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The economics of ex ante coordination Prof. Sergio Bruno and Alessandra De Lellis present in this paper a few fundamental elements of a new perspective in economics, stressing complex time structures and co-ordination issues in investment, production, consumption. It integrates innovation
theories and the earlier studies on the economic development
of nations to single out overlapping issues and solutions.
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Product
differentiation and technological diversification Neoclassical economics just as a change in variety of products to offset the risk of dependency on a single market. There is no consideration of how products are related to one another, no concept of firm-specific technological competences. By contrast, we recognize that a firm is composed of a set of business and a set of resources forming two separate but interrelated bases. This paper broadens the conceptual and practical bases for firm decisions.
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The impact of market structure and irreversibility
on investment under uncertainty: an empirical analysis This paper estimates a model of investment under product price uncertainty for 23 French industries during the period 1977-1997 and represents the first empirical work that includes variables of market structure (in terms of degree of competition) in a model of investment under uncertainty. In the paper, Sara Maioli presents one of the very first attempts to make explicit the empirical relationship between investment and uncertainty under different degrees of irreversibility. An Evolutionary Perspective on Corporate Diversification
Modeling Industrial Dynamics with Innovative Entrants by S.G. Winter, Y.M. Kaniovski, G. Dosi
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Corporate
growth and industrial structures: some evidence from the Italian
manufacturing industry by G. Bottazzi,
E. Cefis, G. Dosi. |
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High-Tech Start-Ups and Industry Dynamics in Silicon Valley Using two unique longitudinal databases, Junfu Zhang investigates firm formation, growth, mortality, and migration in Silicon Valley during the 1990s and explain how the region evolved. After extraordinary economic and innovation success in the late 1990s, Silicon Valley entered a deep recession in 2001. This study seeks to answer tough policy-relevant and empirical questions of interest everywhere in the world.
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Does Schumpeterian Creative Destruction
Lead to Higher Productivity? Evidence on Entry and Exit in Portuguese
Manufacturing Productivity growth patterns have been widely discussed in the literature at both macroeconomic- and industry-level. But growth takes place in individual firms. Understanding resource reallocation at the micro level, and its relationship with industry productivity growth, are thus crucial in designing new industrial policies. The neo-Schumpeterian models of Nelson and Winter are tested with an original and statistically representative panel of manufacturing firms covering the period 1991-2000 (annual observations).
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Does innovation policy matter in a transition country? Prof. Attila Havas demonstrates in this paper the simultaneous need for systemic institutional changes and macroeconomic stabilisation in order to improve microeconomic performance. Whithin an evolutionary economics framework, innovation policy is examined both theoretically and empirically in the case of a country currently undergoing deep structural changes: Hungary. |
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A history-friendly model of the co-evolution of the computer and semiconductors industries: capabilities and technical change as determinants of the vertical scope of firms in related industries by F. Malerba, R. Nelson, L. Orsenigo, S. Winter
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Persistence in profitability and in innovative activities by E. Cefis Dynamic competences and firm performance by Aija Leiponen The different channels of university-industry knowledge transfer: Empirical evidence from Biomedical Engineering by R. Brennenraedts, R. Bekkers, B. Verspagen |
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South Korea's future engines of growth and development strategies for its main industries
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Technological foresight for South Africa Foresight is a systematic process that seeks to understand the long term. It assumes that there are many possible future scenarios and that the shape of the future we inherit depends on the decisions taken today. An important aspect of foresight is the use of qualitative as well as quantitative methods to set priorities and agree onactions. This process involves widespread consultation among all relevant stakeholders. In South Africa, the
Foresight project is being launched against a reality of declining
international competitiveness, relatively low levels of R&D
investment and a need to transform the national technological goals.
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Integrating fishing accounting into the Italian
system of national accounts Presented by Mirko Moro at the 14th Meeting of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists - EAERE 2005, held in Bremen (Germany), this paper shows how the economic performance of the Italian fishing industry was affected by the depreciation of fish stock. It's an interesting example of empirical industrial application of relevant methodologies for a "greener" GDP.
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Mining Clusters and Local Economic Development in Latin America Is a development strategy conceivable for Latin America that has the region’s abundant natural resource base as its point of departure? What would such a development strategy look like and what would be its environmental and social consequences? The challenge seems to be to foster economic
activities related to the exploitation of natural resources, through
forward, backward or lateral linkages, since Latin America could
not attain development by exporting commodities.
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Who
matters in a complex society?
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Consumer decision rules for agent-based models Market dynamics depend not only from supply-side choices but also from the decision making process of consumers during the different phases of the sector life cycle. This paper offers a micro-foundation of demand allowing for heterogenous bounded rational consumers, product differentiation, purchase repetition over time. In particular, you shall find the rules of consumer behavour used in the freely downloadable model of free competition with bi-directional product differentiation, innovation, advertising, and finance that gave rise to these micro-data showing you the characteristichs of early adopters, late adopters, not adopters. Moreover, it suggests to ACE modellers a "golden
rule" for more realistic models.
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Interdependencies
in the dynamics of firm entry and exit Domestic mergers and acquisitions The Finnish evidence through comprehensive and micro-level data reveals that geographical closeness matters a great deal for mergers and acquisitions within a single country. This means that a great number of domestic takeovers occur within narrowly defined regions. In addition, domestic merger flows substantially reinforce the core-periphery dimension.
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Towards
a Theory of Technological Mismatch
In this paper, the relationship between technological change and employment is analysed through private consumption channels: technological change creates new and more consumption opportunities by means of product and process innovation. This results in changes in consumption patterns and budget shares of consumer products. As a consequence of technological change and changing tastes, the production structure will be altered and therefore, changes in (the composition) of employment are inevitable. By using a narrow classification of products as well as occupations, it is possible to analyse the dynamics of adjustment and technological change and their impact on the composition of employment in terms of occupations/skills. Furthermore, obsolescence of products and skills, caused by technological change, can be related to each other by using an input-output framework. |
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Firm size and short-term dynamics in aggregate entry and exit Results from an empirical survey. |
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Product choice and product switching Three-fifths of firms alter their product mix
within an industry every five years, and added and dropped products
account for a substantial |
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Product differentiation or spatial monopoly? the market areas of Austrian universities in business education An empirical analysis of the spatial origin of first year students in all Universities of Austria allows the identification of reputation, distance and market domination effects.
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History of chemical engineering
World matrix of sectoral economic data |
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